Like other prediction markets, Kalshi lets users make trades based on a variety of different subjects and events. For example, you could participate in a market focused on the results of a basketball game, or something more unusual, like who'll win the current season of Survivor. Despite resembling gambling, online predictive markets aren't currently regulated by state gambling laws, and instead classify bets as a type of futures contract, placing them under the purview of the CFTC. That hasn't stopped states from trying to regulate prediction markets anyway. For example, Nevada sued Kalshi for operating a sports gambling market without a permit earlier in February.
Time's story about the new RSP included reactions from a nonprofit director focused on AI risks. Chris Painter, director of METR, described the changes as both understandable and perhaps an ill omen. "I like the emphasis on transparent risk reporting and publicly verifiable safety roadmaps," he said. However, he also raised concerns that the more flexible RSP could lead to a "frog-boiling" effect. In other words, when safety becomes a gray area, a seemingly never-ending series of rationalizations could take the company down the very dark path it once condemned.
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